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Phaedra Daipha - Masters of Uncertainty: Weather Forecasters and the Quest for Ground Truth - 9780226298689 - V9780226298689
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Masters of Uncertainty: Weather Forecasters and the Quest for Ground Truth

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Description for Masters of Uncertainty: Weather Forecasters and the Quest for Ground Truth Paperback. Num Pages: 272 pages. BIC Classification: RBP. Category: (G) General (US: Trade). .
Though we commonly make them the butt of our jokes, weather forecasters are in fact exceptionally good at managing uncertainty. They consistently do a better job calibrating their performance than stockbrokers, physicians, or other decision-making experts precisely because they receive feedback on their decisions in near real time. Following forecasters in their quest for truth and accuracy, therefore, holds the key to the analytically elusive process of decision making as it actually happens. In Masters of Uncertainty, Phaedra Daipha develops a new conceptual framework for the process of decision making, after spending years immersed in the life of a northeastern office of the National Weather Service. Arguing that predicting the weather will always be more craft than science, Daipha shows how forecasters have made a virtue of the unpredictability of the weather. Impressive data infrastructures and powerful computer models are still only a substitute for the real thing outside, and so forecasters also enlist improvisational collage techniques and an omnivorous appetite for information to create a locally meaningful forecast on their computer screens. Intent on capturing decision making in action, Daipha takes the reader through engrossing firsthand accounts of several forecasting episodes (hits and misses) and offers a rare fly-on-the-wall insight into the process and challenges of producing meteorological predictions come rain or come shine. Combining rich detail with lucid argument, Masters of Uncertainty advances a theory of decision making that foregrounds the pragmatic and situated nature of expert cognition and casts into new light how we make decisions in the digital age.

Product Details

Publisher
University Of Chicago Press United States
Number of pages
272
Format
Paperback
Publication date
2015
Condition
New
Number of Pages
280
Place of Publication
, United States
ISBN
9780226298689
SKU
V9780226298689
Shipping Time
Usually ships in 7 to 11 working days
Ref
99-50

About Phaedra Daipha
Phaedra Daipha is assistant professor of sociology at Rutgers University.

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