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Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts´ Probabilities
Anthony O´hagan
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Description for Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts´ Probabilities
Hardcover. Uncertain Judgments Eliciting Experts' Probabilities presents a range of tried and tested elicitation methods to enable statisticians to get make the most of expert opinion. An elicitation method forms a bridge between an expert's opinion and an expression of these points in a statistically useful form. Series: Statistics in Practice. Num Pages: 338 pages, Illustrations,. BIC Classification: MB; PN; TJ. Category: (P) Professional & Vocational. Dimension: 218 x 148 x 27. Weight in Grams: 560.
Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements ... Read more
Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements ... Read more
Product Details
Format
Hardback
Publication date
2006
Publisher
John Wiley & Sons Inc United Kingdom
Number of pages
338
Condition
New
Series
Statistics in Practice
Number of Pages
340
Place of Publication
New York, United States
ISBN
9780470029992
SKU
V9780470029992
Shipping Time
Usually ships in 7 to 11 working days
Ref
99-50
About Anthony O´hagan
Professor Anthony O’Hagan is the Director of The Centre for Bayesian Statistics in Health Economics at the University of Sheffield. The Centre is a collaboration between the Department of Probability and Statistics and the School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR). The Department of Probability and Statistics is internationally respected for its research in Bayesian statistics, while ScHARR is one ... Read more
Reviews for Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts´ Probabilities
“This book, written by a group of expert statisticians and psychologists, provides an introduction to the subject and a detailed overview of the existing literature. The book guides the reader through the design of an elicitation method and details examples from a cross section of literature in the statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences disciplines.” (Zentralblatt Math, 1 August 2013) ... Read more